I have always wondered if the JPY-USD exchange rate should move to 200:1. Yes the energy import cost will rise a lot, but a better relationship with Russia and more R&D can help on the nuclear power side. Selling more into the ME is also possible. Japan may not be quite a society of trust fund babes, but Japanese TV dramas are full of stories of good, but perhaps not top-notch young people forced into crimes or suicides due to failed small businesses or mobs or high living expenses. Japanese government has made the usual mistake of concentrating too much spending in the greater Tokyo area, or the Kanto-plain in general. But the Tokyo area is too expensive for the younger generation. So many Japanese companies have exported jobs to China and not moving them back. The net effect is young people lose faith in a bright future. The same can be said in SK, China, and Taiwan. I suspect HK and Singapore are in the same boat. These young folks have little future until the older generation dies out and the overall population drops down. But then there is the rising problem of robotics and imported labor.
Agreed with nuclear, Japan is restarting the operation of idle nuclear plants and I recall reading that Japan is aiming for 20-22% of energy mix from nuclear so that's substantial. My concern though is the digital deficit and especially AI imports where Japan has no competitive AI of its own to speak of and who knows what the cost of import is going to look like here in 10 years. Your point on the young people is spot on...many young people working in Tokyo seem to be commuting from their parents' house in Chiba/Saitama/Tochigi as they cannot afford to live in the city...sad...but same issue in Korea/China.
I happened to have dabbled in the previous generation of AI (expert system) and the current generation of AI (neural network) a little bit in my research work and corporate job respectively. Just a little bit. I think the current generation of AI has been well over-hyped. AI will continue to grow and grow faster than human intelligence because AI can accomplish complete knowledge transfer while human intelligence cannot even when we try. And most of the time, the masters will keep a thing or two from the pupils. Such is the human world. Over time, AI can become really powerful, but not necessarily for the benefit of human beings. Japanese R&D in robotics, however, is more useful than their AI, at least in the short term, 10-20 years. The culture makes Japanese good software engineers and coders, but poor software creators and architects. This defect cannot be easily fixed.
I think a better future for the East Asian people needs respect for labor of every kind, and reduces focus on monetary wealth or capital. Easier said than done. Unfortunately, democracy and capitalism are compatible only for a short while. The dilemma is best seen in the USA experience.
I have always wondered if the JPY-USD exchange rate should move to 200:1. Yes the energy import cost will rise a lot, but a better relationship with Russia and more R&D can help on the nuclear power side. Selling more into the ME is also possible. Japan may not be quite a society of trust fund babes, but Japanese TV dramas are full of stories of good, but perhaps not top-notch young people forced into crimes or suicides due to failed small businesses or mobs or high living expenses. Japanese government has made the usual mistake of concentrating too much spending in the greater Tokyo area, or the Kanto-plain in general. But the Tokyo area is too expensive for the younger generation. So many Japanese companies have exported jobs to China and not moving them back. The net effect is young people lose faith in a bright future. The same can be said in SK, China, and Taiwan. I suspect HK and Singapore are in the same boat. These young folks have little future until the older generation dies out and the overall population drops down. But then there is the rising problem of robotics and imported labor.
Thank you for the thoughtful feedback!
Agreed with nuclear, Japan is restarting the operation of idle nuclear plants and I recall reading that Japan is aiming for 20-22% of energy mix from nuclear so that's substantial. My concern though is the digital deficit and especially AI imports where Japan has no competitive AI of its own to speak of and who knows what the cost of import is going to look like here in 10 years. Your point on the young people is spot on...many young people working in Tokyo seem to be commuting from their parents' house in Chiba/Saitama/Tochigi as they cannot afford to live in the city...sad...but same issue in Korea/China.
I happened to have dabbled in the previous generation of AI (expert system) and the current generation of AI (neural network) a little bit in my research work and corporate job respectively. Just a little bit. I think the current generation of AI has been well over-hyped. AI will continue to grow and grow faster than human intelligence because AI can accomplish complete knowledge transfer while human intelligence cannot even when we try. And most of the time, the masters will keep a thing or two from the pupils. Such is the human world. Over time, AI can become really powerful, but not necessarily for the benefit of human beings. Japanese R&D in robotics, however, is more useful than their AI, at least in the short term, 10-20 years. The culture makes Japanese good software engineers and coders, but poor software creators and architects. This defect cannot be easily fixed.
I think a better future for the East Asian people needs respect for labor of every kind, and reduces focus on monetary wealth or capital. Easier said than done. Unfortunately, democracy and capitalism are compatible only for a short while. The dilemma is best seen in the USA experience.